Post by Beth on May 31, 2020 0:23:30 GMT
I'm writing to briefly share a few pieces of information relevant to current reopening initiatives.
If you have not heard about them or taken a look, the U.S. Center for Disease Control's Reopening guidelines are published here. On page 5 of this 60+ page document is a table, which identifies criterion that should be met before a locality begins re-opening businesses and schools. The table is divided (as many of you have read in the news) into phases, with some businesses opening first, and others (and schools) in later phases. So for instance, before a city, county, or region is supposed to contemplate re-opening anything that has been closed, the table indicates that it should be seeing a consistent decline in new cases (or numbers already nearing zero), for at least 14 days.
To see regional or county data about cases, there are a few ways to approach the question. If your county has a Department of Public Health, they will likely have public data online. States are also maintaining county-level data in most instances through state government websites. If you're not sure where to start, you can see aggregated data for COVID-19 in the U.S. by clicking here, and then click on your state, and and see if county-level data is available.
How do you know whether your home county is complying with CDC guidelines?
One of the things you may find if you compare the data in your county to the CDC guidelines, is that many counties are entering or have entered Phase I, despite the fact that the CDC criterion have not been met. For instance, in Los Angeles County, the largest county in the U.S., and my home, our numbers are climbing markedly. Yesterday, we had 1788 new (laboratory-confirmed) cases, and today, despite the fact that today is not over, we've already got 2089. We are now accounting for nearly half of all the cases in our state, and more than half of the deaths. Nevertheless, restaurants are opening back up, and so are salons, and presently our municipal government is indicating likely plans to escalate further re-openings. So if you can't track a steady decrease in cases (or almost no cases) consistently over 2 weeks -- this is just one of the criterion -- but this means that your county is not ready to re-open, according to federal public health guidance. If they are doing so anyway, that means that like Los Angeles, they are choosing to ignore CDC guidelines.
What does it mean practically if your county or region is defying the CDC guidelines?
The impact of ignoring the guidelines includes at least one certainty -- more fatalities, with current statistics indicating that approximately 89% of the deaths will be among elders and people with disabilities. It also carries the risk of a surge in cases to the degree that it will "spike" (rather than flatten) the curve -- resulting in moderate to severe overload to healthcare systems. And it further carries the risk that certain social sectors or businesses will shut down or be unable to function normally, if transmission of cases among staff becomes excessive (as we've seen happening in some grocery and manufacturing sectors already).
Why would local governmental bodies choose to ignore federal public health guidelines?
One answer is that they are guidelines, not mandatory, and so they can choose to disregard them without legal consequence. Another is that the Trump administration is exerting a lot of pressure to escalate re-opening as fast as possible. A third is that many local and regional economic interests/corporations/industries are also pressuring governmental authorities to re-open as quickly as possible in order to try to mitigate damage to their profit margins. A fourth answer is that because a pandemic on this scale is new in our lifetime(s) there are still uncertainties about the consequences of different policy choices, and many local politicians are not sure what they should be doing. And one last answer: public education about COVID-19 and about the process of pandemic has been relatively weak in the United States, and so many community members don't really understand well what's happening. Absent real knowledge, many people will default to just putting pressure on leaders to make things go back to normal, without understanding why that's unsafe or impractical at present. However, civic leaders are often thinking about approval ratings, re-election and corporate campaign donations, and even whether their neighbors will be angry with them, and with all these sources of pressure, and gaps in information and education -- public policy isn't always reflective of good public health planning.
What can you do with this information?
a) If you believe your county or city is re-opening prematurely or too quickly -- say something. Municipal leaders are usually getting far more (corporate) pressure to re-open then counsel to be more cautious, from any sector. Voter and resident counter-pressure is vital. You can find contact information through city and county governmental websites for your mayor, for lead officials in County Health offices, and for members of city or county boards or councils. Share a copy by email or social media with your networks, to prompt others to mobilize as well.
b) Make personal choices that factor in the genuine risks to self and others, rather than letting public policy be your personal guide or decision-maker. It's a particularly vital time to think about taking care of the safety of others, rather than just weighing the risk to yourself, or the people you immediately live with. Choosing to stay home or stay out of businesses and crowded spaces because you don't want to help potentially spread the disease to elders, and to people who are already vulnerable medically -- is a deeply political, ethical, and vital choice to make. It's also very "un-American", in the sense that most people in the U.S. are used to thinking very individually -- and weighing risk in terms of "will I get sick"? A better and more communal question to ask is "What can I do to keep everyone in my community safer?" Many civic leaders are under-valuing public health relative to corporate pressure right now, and that puts us in a position where our individual and communal ethics really need to guide our actions.
If you're here with me in LA County, where infections are climbing, where we've only tested less than 6% of our population, where low-income communities of color are getting hit harder by COVID-19, and where infections are spreading in convalescent homes and other sites with medically vulnerable people: I hope you'll join me in refusing to participate in the re-opening, except where truly needed for your or your loved ones' physical or mental health, or economic safety. I'm staying home as much as I can not just for my own safety, but because I really, really don't want to help kill anyone else who's especially vulnerable.
If you have not heard about them or taken a look, the U.S. Center for Disease Control's Reopening guidelines are published here. On page 5 of this 60+ page document is a table, which identifies criterion that should be met before a locality begins re-opening businesses and schools. The table is divided (as many of you have read in the news) into phases, with some businesses opening first, and others (and schools) in later phases. So for instance, before a city, county, or region is supposed to contemplate re-opening anything that has been closed, the table indicates that it should be seeing a consistent decline in new cases (or numbers already nearing zero), for at least 14 days.
To see regional or county data about cases, there are a few ways to approach the question. If your county has a Department of Public Health, they will likely have public data online. States are also maintaining county-level data in most instances through state government websites. If you're not sure where to start, you can see aggregated data for COVID-19 in the U.S. by clicking here, and then click on your state, and and see if county-level data is available.
How do you know whether your home county is complying with CDC guidelines?
One of the things you may find if you compare the data in your county to the CDC guidelines, is that many counties are entering or have entered Phase I, despite the fact that the CDC criterion have not been met. For instance, in Los Angeles County, the largest county in the U.S., and my home, our numbers are climbing markedly. Yesterday, we had 1788 new (laboratory-confirmed) cases, and today, despite the fact that today is not over, we've already got 2089. We are now accounting for nearly half of all the cases in our state, and more than half of the deaths. Nevertheless, restaurants are opening back up, and so are salons, and presently our municipal government is indicating likely plans to escalate further re-openings. So if you can't track a steady decrease in cases (or almost no cases) consistently over 2 weeks -- this is just one of the criterion -- but this means that your county is not ready to re-open, according to federal public health guidance. If they are doing so anyway, that means that like Los Angeles, they are choosing to ignore CDC guidelines.
What does it mean practically if your county or region is defying the CDC guidelines?
The impact of ignoring the guidelines includes at least one certainty -- more fatalities, with current statistics indicating that approximately 89% of the deaths will be among elders and people with disabilities. It also carries the risk of a surge in cases to the degree that it will "spike" (rather than flatten) the curve -- resulting in moderate to severe overload to healthcare systems. And it further carries the risk that certain social sectors or businesses will shut down or be unable to function normally, if transmission of cases among staff becomes excessive (as we've seen happening in some grocery and manufacturing sectors already).
Why would local governmental bodies choose to ignore federal public health guidelines?
One answer is that they are guidelines, not mandatory, and so they can choose to disregard them without legal consequence. Another is that the Trump administration is exerting a lot of pressure to escalate re-opening as fast as possible. A third is that many local and regional economic interests/corporations/industries are also pressuring governmental authorities to re-open as quickly as possible in order to try to mitigate damage to their profit margins. A fourth answer is that because a pandemic on this scale is new in our lifetime(s) there are still uncertainties about the consequences of different policy choices, and many local politicians are not sure what they should be doing. And one last answer: public education about COVID-19 and about the process of pandemic has been relatively weak in the United States, and so many community members don't really understand well what's happening. Absent real knowledge, many people will default to just putting pressure on leaders to make things go back to normal, without understanding why that's unsafe or impractical at present. However, civic leaders are often thinking about approval ratings, re-election and corporate campaign donations, and even whether their neighbors will be angry with them, and with all these sources of pressure, and gaps in information and education -- public policy isn't always reflective of good public health planning.
What can you do with this information?
a) If you believe your county or city is re-opening prematurely or too quickly -- say something. Municipal leaders are usually getting far more (corporate) pressure to re-open then counsel to be more cautious, from any sector. Voter and resident counter-pressure is vital. You can find contact information through city and county governmental websites for your mayor, for lead officials in County Health offices, and for members of city or county boards or councils. Share a copy by email or social media with your networks, to prompt others to mobilize as well.
b) Make personal choices that factor in the genuine risks to self and others, rather than letting public policy be your personal guide or decision-maker. It's a particularly vital time to think about taking care of the safety of others, rather than just weighing the risk to yourself, or the people you immediately live with. Choosing to stay home or stay out of businesses and crowded spaces because you don't want to help potentially spread the disease to elders, and to people who are already vulnerable medically -- is a deeply political, ethical, and vital choice to make. It's also very "un-American", in the sense that most people in the U.S. are used to thinking very individually -- and weighing risk in terms of "will I get sick"? A better and more communal question to ask is "What can I do to keep everyone in my community safer?" Many civic leaders are under-valuing public health relative to corporate pressure right now, and that puts us in a position where our individual and communal ethics really need to guide our actions.
If you're here with me in LA County, where infections are climbing, where we've only tested less than 6% of our population, where low-income communities of color are getting hit harder by COVID-19, and where infections are spreading in convalescent homes and other sites with medically vulnerable people: I hope you'll join me in refusing to participate in the re-opening, except where truly needed for your or your loved ones' physical or mental health, or economic safety. I'm staying home as much as I can not just for my own safety, but because I really, really don't want to help kill anyone else who's especially vulnerable.